The fate of the Gulf Stream in a changing climate (FutureGS)

The Gulf Stream is part of a large ocean current system called “Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation” (AMOC).

The AMOC transports large amounts of heat poleward from the tropics, maintaining Europe’s mild climate for its latitude. New results indicate that the ongoing warming puts the AMOC at risk. An abrupt reduction of the AMOC would have dramatic effects on the climate in Europe.

Climate models project an AMOC decline in the 21st century but the amplitude of the decline is strongly model-dependent, thus critically limiting the robustness of future climate projections for Europe.

Insufficient resolution in the models to adequately represent the complex processes governing the AMOC, has been identified as main cause for the uncertainties.

Here, we will use a new high-resolution global climate model with four times as high resolution as before and perform new simulations with unprecedented fidelity until year 2100 to investigate, how fast the AMOC will decline in the future, and thus provide more reliable future projections for Europe.

We will also use high-resolution simulations of the Last Interglacial, which was the last period with a 2˚C warming as well as perform dedicated sensitivity studies to investigate the stability of the AMOC in a warmer world.

Together with stakeholders from various societal sectors, we will analyse, discuss and interpret the results from our analysis and the consequences for the environment, society, economy and health.