Pubertal BMI change and the risk of adult cardiovascular disease and diabetes

The role of BMI during the physiologically distinct periods childhood and puberty for adult cardio-metabolic disease is not known.

The population-based BEST Gothenburg cohort (n≈400,000) has BMI measurements from school health care, long-term follow-up in high-quality Swedish disease registers, and 50% overlap with the SCAPIS cohort with thorough cardio-metabolic characterization (n≈3,500).

Based on our previous findings that pubertal BMI change predicts CVD mortality, stroke, heart failure and type 2 diabetes, I hypothesize that high pubertal BMI change results in an adverse cardio-metabolic profile and increased risk of CVD and diabetes.

The aim of this five-year research program is to evaluate the role of high pubertal BMI change for the risk of adult CVD and diabetes and for mediating factors, in adult women and men. Project 1 evaluates the association between the pubertal BMI change and risk of CVD and diabetes.

Project 2 uses the BEST Gothenburg linked to SCAPIS to search for potential mediators (insulin resistance, visceral, epicardial and intramuscular fat, liver steatosis, atherosclerosis and gut microbiota) for the association between the pubertal BMI change and adult CVD and diabetes.

The findings will determine the timing, threshold and possible mediators for the association between pubertal BMI change and adult cardio-metabolic disease. These results may improve identification of youth at high risk of CVD and diabetes and novel targets for treatment.