Sea-level rise contribution from the North Greenland Ice Sheet in a warming climate

Sea-level rise caused by global warming is a serious threat to large populations and vital economic infrastructures concentrated along the coastlines.

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently responsible for a quarter of the observed sea-level rise, and its contribution is expected to grow.

The northern sector of the GrIS holds over one meter of global sea level; if its outlets glaciers continue to lose their buttressing ice tongues they can begin to flow as rapidly as their more southerly counterparts of the Ice Sheet.

Here, we propose a detailed modelling study of the response of the North GrIS to rising temperatures until year 2300, based on IPPC climate modelling projections. A state-of-the-art numerical model will be used to simulate the ice sheet and its marine outlet glaciers in fjords.

New and unique bathymetric and oceanographic data will constrain the model, and dictate how warm ocean waters in contact with the ice tongues melt ice.

The project forms a part of the North Greenland Earth-Ocean-Ecosystem Observatory (GEOEO) Research Theme, adopted by the Swedish Polar Research Secretariat.

GEOEO includes an expedition with Icebreaker Oden in 2024, during which we propose to collect new field data further constraining the ice-sheet modelling in unsurveyed fjords and areas off North Greenland.

A particular aim of the future modelling projections is to examine if a compliance with the Paris Agreement is enough to halt the mass loss from the North GrIS.