Old enough to drink – then what? Examining alcohol consumption in a cohort with historically low levels of drinking.

Youth drinking has been declining for two decades in Sweden. In 2018 just 39% of 9th graders reported having consumed alcohol (down from 81% in 2000).

Yet, we know surprisingly little about the underlying mechanisms of this development, or the long-term importance of this.

Several review articles conclude that there is an urgent need for high quality prospective cohort studies to further our understanding of the consequences of adolescent drinking.

Most research on adolescent drinking trends in recent years have a cross-sectional or cross-national design, but there is a paucity of studies with a longitudinal design exploring the longer-term health and social implications of these declines.There are clear indications that, in today’s changed landscape of youth drinking, the factors associated with an early drinking initiation has changed and that the importance of early drinking has also changed.The aim of the proposed project is to examine the determinants and predictors of drinking status at different ages, how drinking develops between 16 and 21-years of age and the importance of early drinking initiation for subsequent adverse outcomes.We will use data from Futura01, a nationally based, prospective cohort study with a sample of 5 500 Swedish youth born in 2001.

The baseline data was collected in 2017 and the first follow-up in 2019. The third wave is planned for 2022.

Participants provided their social security numbers making it possible to link their survey responses to national registers. Alcohol is the leading risk factor for disease and injury for young people.

The findings will be informative for designing preventive measures aimed to reduce the negative consequences of drinking.

Decreases in youth drinking has also been reported from a wide range of countries, our findings will therefore be of importance for an international audience.Beyond what is generated through the proposed studies the project will carry out the second follow-up of the Futura01-study.