Impacts on boreal forest biodiversity and productivity by fungal pathogens and climate change

The Swedish forest is a large industrial resource and of high relevance to other industries and human well-being. Climate change is expected to have a large impact on the boreal forest ecosystem.

Both directly through increased temperatures and indirectly through changes in species composition and favourable climate for pests in general and Scots pine blister rust (Cronartium flaccidum, and Peridermium pini) in particular. This blister rust cause large yearly production losses which in turn reduce carbon sequestering.

Through a combination of trends observed in species composition over a time period of 60-years, based on sequencing of archived air filters, and climate in local and at larger scales we will make predictions on future blister rust prevalence.

Using the general level of blister rust resistance in the Scots pine populations and specific resistance among different genotypes we will assess the quantitative genetic basis of resistance and model population responses in Scots pine under different climate scenarios.

The database of genotyped trees and their corresponding phenotypes will become a valuable tool to increase the efficiency of resistance breeding in Scots pine.

The time series species composition database will provide a fundament for early warning systems for emerging pest, diseases and invasive species, and for policy-making on biodiversity.