Decision-making under deep uncertainty for adaptation to climate change

Methods for making better decisions under deep uncertainty is needed for strategic climate adaptation.

The newly adopted national strategy for climate adaptation emphasizes in its guiding principles the importance of managing uncertainty, risk, different time perspectives in search for robust and flexible solutions. However, these can be difficult to identify if decision-makers lack tools to handle uncertainties in the process.

In previous research, views of climate uncertainty for different actors in Sweden was examined and a simple method was tested in three municipalities.

The results indicate that the studied organizations lack knowledge and tools to understand and embrace the climate-related uncertainties, let alone make robust decisions and search for flexible solutions.

This new project will deepen the understanding of the authorities’ perception of uncertainties in climate adaptation, through a study of all relevant authorities´ climate and vulnerability analyzes and action plans.

Furthermore, guidelines and methods, adapted to Swedish conditions, will be developed for uncertainty management in decision-making processes. The result will give public actors clearer guidance on how to achieve and use the guiding principles.

It will also give municipal actors understanding and knowledge of how methods for managing deep uncertainty and robust adaptation in strategic planning can be used.