Perspective on future diseases in NW Europe based on ancient animal pathogens during past climate warmings

Ongoing climate warming has already triggered a rise in some animal diseases on land, but what we do not know is whether the number of diseases – bacterial and viral – will increase as climate warming progresses and thereby further intensify the ongoing biota degradation on land. There is hence an urgent need to better understand the disease landscape we might be faced with in the near future.

In NW Europe where the climate is a complex “hot-spot” and where successful projections of climatic trends is challenging, this need is even stronger.

The aim of the project is about answering this need by studying how ancient animal bacteria and viruses responded to past climatic warmings with similar temperature increase and amplitude than today´s.

The project will capitalise on the many advantages of cave stalagmites, namely: being radiometrically datable, recording past climatic conditions and preserving ancient DNA.

Specifically, I will analyse Irish cave stalagmites that have recorded Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events during the Late Pleistocene.

The project will provide (1) a better understanding of the dynamics between animal movement, pathogens, and climate warming, (2) new climatic and biotic data that will feed models working at predicting disease trend under anthropogenic warming, (3) new analytical tool for the study of ancient pathogens, and (4) re-assess the role of disease on megafauna decline during the Late Pleistocene in NW Europe.