Identifying effective management strategies for enhancing trans-national metapopulation protection of the Arctic Fox in mainland Europe

The tundra ecosystem is exposed to the fastest climate change within Europe, where fragmentation of tundra habitats is a major threat that accelerates the extinction risk of native species through metapopulation processes.The Arctic fox is a climate change flagship species. It was widespread in Fennoscandia until fur harvesting decimated the population in the early 1900s.

Despite protection, population decline continued and was on the verge of extinction with c.50 adults remaining in 2000.

Following conservation actions, the metapopulation has now increased to c.400, but climate change and other threats, require a transnational management strategy.We aim to develop a spatially explicit Arctic fox metapopulation model as a tool to prioritize areas and conservation actions across Fennoscandia.

The model will include data on Arctic fox demography, species interactions and conservation actions. GIS projections will explore the tundra spatial structure under climate change scenarios.

We will involve management authorities and stakeholders from all countries to create a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) framework where the metapopulation model is key to evaluate alternative strategies under future scenarios. The Swedish project will contribute to all WPs, but foremost generate new data on dispersal and connectivity (WP1).

Our project will highlight the use of metapopulation models to predict climate change impact on biodiversity and design of transnational conservation programs.