Investigating multi-centennial climate variability using the Earth System Model

A crucial goal in climate research is to better understand the mechanisms behind observed climate variability and change in order to assess the relative roles of internal variability and external forcing in explaining observed changes in the climate system.

It is difficult to obtain an estimate of internal variability purely from the observational record considering that observed climate variations arise both from internal variability and from external forcings.

Paleoclimate proxy records indicate existence of multi-centennial climate variability in Earth´s climate system but the cause and mechanism of this variability remain unknown.

This project aims to use an Earth System Model to perform several simulations under different climate state such as past interglacial and glacial periods, as well as present-day climate and future scenarios.

The project results are extremely useful in characterizing the internal variability in the climate system in the absence of external forcing changes, as well as to estimate how the different external forcing can alter these low-frequency variabilities.

We will compile more paleo-proxy data and also involve simulations from other climate models to provide facts-based and model-independence results.

The project outcome will deepen the understanding of the basic laws of the earth’s climate and improve our ability to grasp the general direction of future earth climate change.