Tropical precipitation tipping-points

The Amazon rain forest is under severe and has already lost about 20 percent of its extent to human exploitation since the 1970s.

Worries have been raised that the forest is approaching a tipping-point, caused by global warming, beyond which an irreversible cascade converts the unique rain forest biome to savannah and open canopy forests.

In this project I propose that the leading theories of this Amazon tipping-point are missing important negative atmospheric feedback processes, in particular that 1) convective clouds prefers to precipitate over drier regions, 2) explore the relative roles of global warming, aerosol particles and deforestation, and 3) investigate whether there are large-scale energetic constraints dictating that a certain amount of tropical precipitation is needed to sustain the tropospheric energy balance.

I will use leading edge modelling techniques including large ensembles and global cloud resolving simulations to understand and quantify these forcing mechanisms and atmospheric feedbacks.

The results of this research is important for understanding ongoing change in the Amazon, and practically for deciding which strategies will work best for preserving this unique environment.