Climate-Induced Migration in Africa and Beyond: Big Data and Predictive Analytics

Climate change could lead to human resettlements and other (new) forms of mobility.

However, the empirical link between various climatic conditions and migration outcomes is highly contested, and, to date, no unified theoretical approach can adequately capture the complexity and contextual dependency of climate-induced migration.

To address this gap, CLIMB seeks to develop a holistic approach which will allow us to better understand how climate change may intersect with conflicts, poverty, among other adversities, and operate in tandem in driving human migration.Climate risks are more likely to affect internal mobility, hence, rather than aiming for a global study, CLIMB will collect timely and granular data on specific areas where the climate-migration nexus can be more apparent conceptually and empirically.

Senegal is chosen as our first case study, as it is projected to have more extreme weather events and up to one million people could be forced to move by 2050.

Moreover, mobile phone data provided by Sonatel (the principal telecom provider of Senegal) offers a unique opportunity to study mobility patterns at a high resolution.

CLIMB will also leverage earth observation and social media data, and combine them with survey and official statistical data. Such an approach will allow us to gain more insights about the temporality of climate-induced migration. It will also allow us to better understand how migratory processes are shaped by multi-level factors.