Piecing the puzzle together: High-risk combinations of early risk factors and developmental paths behind juvenile delinquency.

Research problem and specific questionsJuvenile delinquency, i.e., criminality, is associated with great risks for severe problems in adulthood, such as crime, drug use, and mental illness.

It is important to deepen our understanding of the development of delinquency already from early childhood to facilitate development of effective strategies for crime prevention.

Thus, using an existing database from a prospective longitudinal study of appr. 2.000 community youths, this project aims to answer what combinations of early childhood risk factors increase the risk for various forms of juvenile delinquency the most, if there are different developmental paths of risk factors from early childhood to adolescence and how are they associated to various forms of juvenile delinquency, what characterizes the different developmental paths identified in question 2 in terms of risk factors in other domains (i.e., child, family, peer, and preschool/school factors), and if gender specific patterns can be identified in relation to the above questions.

Data and method The project will be carried out using existing data from the SOFIA-study, a prospective longitudinal reseaproject that has followed the same group of children (about 2000 boys and girls), from the age of 3-5 (2010) to adolescence (14-16-years). The database includes six data collections and a planned seventh (2023) from several different respondent groups.

Similarities and differences between boys and girls will be studied throughout with the aim of identifying any gender-specific patterns, as research on girls´ crime trends is currently insufficient.Societal relevance and utilisationThis project will add more detailed knowledge on the development of delinquency to the existing body of international research that can be used to develop more effective preventive interventions.Plan for project realisationDuring the first year, an additional wave of data will be collected through self-reporting from children (then adolescents in secondary school).

The SOFIA study is a collaboration between Örebro University, Karlstad University and Karlstad municipality and the survey will be developed jointly by the research team and representatives from the municipality. The remaining time will be devoted to analysing and writing scientific articles on the collected data.