Not as bad? The Swedish welfare state transformation and its impact on poverty and inequality in comparative perspective

Research problem and specific questions Research has noted that Swedish welfare state has become less universal, while the level of redistribution has declined and the relative poverty rate has been rising.

The aim of this project is to analyse how changing social policies affect economic standards of low-income households, with a focus on heterogeneity among these. Specific questions posed are, how did the inequalities between low-income households evolve?

To what extent have changes in the poverty rate been driven changing social risks, on the one hand, and by changing associations between these risks and poverty on the other?

To what extent can these trends be explained by changing social policies?Data and methodThe project combines longitudinal analyses of Sweden with a comparative perspective, based data covering around 30 affluent welfare states between 1990 to the 2020s.

Cross-national longitudinal data on households’ living standards from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), will be combined with novel policy indicators from the Social Policy Indicators (SPIN) database, reflecting the changing structure of cash transfer systems across welfare states.

A combination of decomposition analyses and statistical time-series cross-section regression techniques will be used to explore trends and associations in the data.Societal relevance and utilisation At a time when the Swedish social policy model stands at a crossroads, the results will inform policy debates about the ongoing transformation of the welfare state, contributing with new knowledge about impacts on the living conditions of vulnerable groups, and provide insights into how policies for reducing poverty can be refined.

It will also contribute to international debates, about the effectiveness of welfare states in light of disappointing trends regarding poverty and inequality.Plan for project realisation The project will have a duration of three years.

Initially, datasets combining information on the economic standards of households and relevant policy indicators will be set up. A literature review will also be undertaken.

The time thereafter will mainly be devoted to analyses and presentation of preliminary results at Swedish and international conferences.

Articles for academic journals will be produced throughout the project, and in the later stages of the project results will be communicated with the wider audience in Sweden.