Impact of climate variation and change on offshore wind energy potential

Driven by a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural climate changes, near-surface wind speed over land displayed a large decrease over the past decades till about 2010, named “stilling”, and recent recovery from their slowdown. Changes in wind speed are mainly controlled by the pressure gradient.

Global warming changes large-scale temperature gradients such as the thermal contrast between the polar and tropical regions and the large-scale pressure gradient. On the regional level, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns play an important role.

Variabilities and changes in these modes are largely manifestations of internal variability, although external forcings such as greenhouse gases and aerosols also have some influence.

Therefore, we must understand to what extent the historical changes in near-surface wind speed are due to external forcing and internal variability, to be able to determine the causes behind the past changes and to project future changes.

However, our current understanding of these aspects is extremely limited and inconclusive.This project aims to significantly improve our understanding of the contributions of external forcing and internal variability to the changes in near-surface wind speed over coastal areas in the northern hemisphere with a focus on Sweden in the past decades and to project their future changes concerning offshore wind energy potential.

It has great potential for scientific breakthroughs and sustainable development.