Effects of global change on aquatic ecosystem resilience through shifts in community size structure – a modelling approach for better holistic management

Global change affects aquatic ecosystems through multiple pressures such as climate warming, eutrophication and overexploitation. One of its hallmarks is a shift in body size, typically towards dominance of small organisms.

However, this aspect has been studied in isolation from its ecosystem consequences, which may obstruct informed management actions.

In this project, I aim to address this gap by developing novel size-structured food web models and use them to predict lake ecosystem resilience to global change pressures.

First, I will build and analyze a mechanistic, stage-structured plankton food web model to study the effects of size shifts on key ecosystem functions.

Then, I will employ this model to better understand large-scale patterns using an extensive data set on lakes across Sweden.

I will assess and predict lake resilience to future global change scenarios, thus providing an important tool for better management initiatives.

Finally, I will develop a physiologically-structured fish population model that considers not only size shifts in fish, but also the dynamics of the entire lake ecosystem down to the nutrient level.

I will take advantage of available data across Scandinavia to identify lakes most vulnerable to global change, while suggesting better, holistic management actions.

My project will provide an important stepping-stone towards better integration of theoretical ecology with current practices of population management and ecosystem conservation.