Dynamic Adaptation to Temporally compound hydroclimate Extremes: supporting a sustainable transformation under global changes (DATE)

Temporally compound hydroclimate extremes, such as drought-to-flood and heatwave-drought transitions, are consecutive and/or partially overlapping events. Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates their frequency and intensity, making them the norm in many regions.

Lack of impact databases and the complex socio-physical feedbacks underlying the genesis of such extremes pose a formidable challenge to sustainable transformation.This project aims to enhance understanding of temporally compound hydroclimate extremes and identify adaptation actions that promote sustainable transformation.

Specific aims include: 1) developing a multi-sectoral impact database of such extremes in Europe since 1940; 2) analyzing (un)sustainable transformation following extreme events through two case studies; 3) proposing a novel system dynamics modelling framework for a system view, and 4) developing scenarios to evaluate public health and societal impacts of future extremes under different development pathways.A thorough understanding of such extremes is crucial for developing a sustainable society, as their impact is likely to disproportionately affect vulnerable groups.

In addition, societal responses after an extreme may exacerbate inequalities and contribute to the genesis of successive extremes.

This makes the planned research highly timely.The project will engage with stakeholders and end-users to ensure their needs are met in achieving a fair and effective response to climate change.