Integrated modelling of impacts of urban policies to support urban decision making

Urban policies to address climate change or improve air quality have the potential to generate significant co-benefits in public and planetary health, or in reverse lead to unintended consequences in other sectors. Yet, we create disjointed targets, campaigns and regulations that tackle problems in siloes. The lack of joined-up thinking is a wasted opportunity to improve urban sustainability and health.

Quantifying benefits, co-benefits and trade-offs associated urban policies and their alternatives can help make the case for options that are most appealing from a holistic perspective. To be most useful the evidence-base must also recognize specific needs of policy cycles, public appeal, and competing interests. A systems perspective ultimately is needed to demonstrate the attractiveness or risks associated with different policy options and support decision-making.

This PhD proposes to develop a decision-making support tool that includes integrated health and environmental impact models for policy makers to make informed choices using a systems perspective. A quantitative modelling framework linking existing and relatively user-friendly models will be assembled to assess jointly impacts of a range of urban policies.

The project will focus on transport infrastructure and urban land use planning, demonstrating the varying degrees and extent of benefits, co-benefits, and trade-offs each entail. A co-creation approach will be used to scope the policies and impacts to be modelled.