Modelling the effect of decarbonisation on national electricity grid stability

The UK Government has committed to decarbonise all sectors of the UK economy by 2050, to reach this goal not only will the existing 11.5% of UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity generation need to be decarbonised, but also the future electrification of domestic transport (29% of UK GHGs), the heating of homes (20% of UK GHGs) and industry (14% of UK GHGs) will need to be supplied by low carbon or carbon neutral energy sources. This PhD project aims to take the currently available data for the UK, provided by open source websites like Gridwatch and ElectricityMaps, to create predictive models for the years 2030 to 2050 where scenarios for different energy mixes can be tested against specific case studies.

Creating a model, the data input of which can be later changed for other countries or possibly the European continent, to produce these scenarios will require the creation of steady state models using PowerBI or Python code, where key parameters will be: power generation sources, transmission line efficiency, interconnectors and the modelling of expected future growth in large scale electrification of the domestic market in addition to the growing installation of small distributed generators in micro or nano grid configurations. A breakdown of these aims are as follows:

Aim 1 - Conduct a literature review that builds upon the work completed by the student at the University of Bristol, focusing specifically on new topics that were omitted from MScR due to time constraints, such topics are: transmission line efficiency, nano and micro grid integration and effect of national grid planning, interconnector management as dynamic sources and sinks for power management in addition to greater modelling of electrification of domestic appliances and vehicles.

Aim 2 - Using open source data for the UK as a template, create a model of the UK using either PowerBI or Python which will provide clear predictive scenarios for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 each of which will outline the steps necessary or the blocks preventing a successful decarbonisation of the UK's electricity grid. This model can use a jigsaw method, constructing county level power structures, comprised of available micro, nano and national connections, to form a cohesive and detailed map of the UK including relevant infrastructure, transmission lines, interconnectors and ideal locations for future expansion of low carbon energy sources.

The model will also include several parameters focusing on domestic electrification, notably the increase in electric vehicles, electric home heating and predicted increases in electrical appliance efficiency. These toggles will be adjustable for use by either industry or government to create scenarios that could be used to inform policy or industrial strategy.

Methods that are expected to be employed for this project include, the initial use of PowerBI (used extensively during MScR) for model creation to test theories of data display and the use of JSON files of UK county boundaries, a final render of the project using bespoke code in Python to give greater flexibility for data manipulation.