How populist narratives affect the electoral integrity? - Lessons from the Western Balkans

Populist false claims, globally pervasive during elections, have had limited research on their impact on electoral integrity. Recent events, notably the 2021 US Presidential election (Bondet al., 2021) and the 2022 Brazilian Presidential elections (Santillana, 2023), highlight post-election violence risks which are related to the constant promotion of false, divisive narratives (Mongrain, 2023).

This represents threat to democracy specially during these times of electoral backsliding (Garnett et al., 2022;)

Following the global trends over the past decade, Western Balkans' populist election strategies also fostered divisions and discontent. The region's fragile state, marked by past conflicts, demands in-depth academic research on how these narratives effect electoral integrity. Despite existing research on populism and elections, the need for studying the intersection of populism and electoral integrity in the Western Balkans is now more critical than ever.

The pervasive use of divisive narratives in the political landscapes of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and North Macedonia has raised concerns about the integrity of electoral processes. In Serbia, the portrayal of the USA as the primary adversary, (Stojanovskiet al., 2023) coupled with the promotion of 'us versus them', reflects a divisive approach by officials to label opposition as traitors.

Similarly, in Bosnia and Herzegovina's Republika Srpska, the dissemination of myths perpetuates a sense of impending threat (Stronski and Himes, 2019), influencing voters and triggering tense situations during elections. In both countries OSCE ODIHR cites cases of pressures, vote buying, misuse of state resources.

Montenegro experiences an influx of false narratives, creating fear and uncertainty,predominantly from opposition populist factions (Muric et.al., 2023). This includes baseless claims of external intervention and power disruptions. In North Macedonia, the largest populist party's utilization of anti-Western narratives led to disruptions within the parliament during a critical election session (Ceka, 2023).

These instances underscore the manipulation of public opinion through divisive narratives,threatening the democratic fabric of these nations and raising pertinent concerns about the fairness and integrity of their electoral processes. Divisive narratives may depress voter turnout (Norris and Grömping, 2017) on the other side portraying populists as "defenders of the people," help in mobilizing their supporters (Gennaro et al., 2021).

ODIHR's findings signal electoral integrity violations in regard to the International standards (Norris and Grömping, 2017). Coupled with the Western Balkans' tumultuous history, these actions risk destabilizing the region and, consequently, the continent.

In these evolving democracies shaped by post-socialist and post-conflict dynamics, populism,radicalism, and extremism find fertile ground for growth (Stojarova, 2016; Buljubasic and Hola, 2021). Scholarly analyses highlight the rise of far-right, populist, and ethno-nationalist parties, governments with religious discourse, and anti-elite sentiments across WB countries (Toal, 2013; Musliu and Lofton, 2022; Dzeverdanovic-Pejovic, 2022; Todosijevic et al.,2022; Jenne, 2021).

The Western Balkans have limited research on how populist parties affect Electoral integrity. Most of the research addressees the US Elections as well as the UK Brexit phenomenon. Minimal comparative literature exists, emphasizing mapping of populist actors' research (Kelly, 2019). This study will analyse populist narratives' effect on Electoral integrity through case studies in North Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina (2016-2024).