Educational Approaches to Existential Risk Mitigation: Capabilities and Curriculum

Existential Risks

Existential risks are profoundly serious, with an estimated 15-20% (Ord, 2020) to 50% (Rees, 2014) chance of causing human extinction this century. They are also diverse, including climate change and environmental degradation, as well as novel technologies like AI, nanotechnology, and biotechnology, which, whilst socially transformative, pose risks of severe destruction (Beard et al., 2023, p.xi).

Despite the difficulty in gauging their exact severity, their potentially catastrophic consequences require urgent action. However, current efforts are insufficient, with more than ten times greater spending on ice cream than on risk prevention (Ord, 2020, p.313) and substantially more research on dung beetles and Star Trek than onunderstanding and mitigating these threats (Bostrom, 2013, p.26).

Existential risks (X-risks) and their neglect stem from individual cognitive biases and structural issues. Biases like scope neglect (Yudkowsky, 2020, pp.105-107), where people struggle to respond appropriately to large-scale problems, and confirmation bias (pp.98-101), the tendency to seek information that confirms existing beliefs, are rooted in the philosophies of Western modernity.

Additionally, critical perspectives identify how X-risks arise more from the pursuit of profit and power of entities such as the U.S. military-industrial complex, fossil fuel corporations, and major tech companies (Kemp, 2021). In sum, existential risks challenge us to confront not only our survival but also the prevailing structures of bmorality and power within society; necessitating a paradigm shift in both scholarly attention and policymaking.

Education

This proposal holds that education is key to driving this societal change. Schools, as intermediaries between individuals and society (Lawson et al., 2019, p.461), can significantly aid in raising individual and collective awareness and engagement around X-risks (Dietz et al., 2020, pp.137, 139). Yet, current educational systems often emphasize capital generation and technical thinking over critical awareness and societal engagement (Black, 2012; Tapinos, 2016).

Moreover, whilst longstanding efforts to mitigate climate change and support environmental conservation have enabled hugely important contributions to educational theory and practice, such work overlooks the emerging risks from technologies like AI and nanotechnology, which pose higher extinction probabilities (approximately 1-in-30 for AI and nanotechnology and 1-in-1,000 for climate change, as per Sandberg and Bostrom, 2008; Ord, 2020, p.167). X-risks, being future-oriented and global, necessitate a globally consequentialist approach to mitigation (Ord, 2013; UNESCO, 2015, p.15).

This global focus in education risks a dichotomy between the present eudaimonia of learners and their rationalised subjectification as global citizens with responsibilities beyond their immediate time (Robertson and Muellerleile, 2017, pp.4-6; Robertson, 2022) and place. This scenario mirrors the influential 'techno-utopian approach' in Existential Risk Studies, prioritizing goals that may overlook the immediate needs of marginalized groups (Beard and Torres, 2020, p.13).

A related concern is the growing government preference for techno-utopian solutions in policymaking, which could further embed such perspectives in governance (Kemp, 2023). Proposed Research Response

Recognizing this context and its tensions, the proposed PhD research seeks to explore transformative approaches to school education that equip the capabilities to empower the next generation to address X-risks