Casualty Trends in Terrorism: Exploring the Impact of Activity and Contextual Factors on Fatalities in High-Profile Terrorist Groups

Terrorism poses a severe global threat, necessitating continuous academic attention. In recent decades, terrorist attack casualties have surged. Although previous studies recognized overarching activity patterns and contextual factors

impacting terrorism fatalities, a significant gap remains in understanding factors unique to individual groups. This PhD research addresses this by exploring factors shaping the fatality rates of the five deadliest terrorist groups on the Global

Terrorism Database (GTD). The study aims to understand each group's death rate evolution, how activity and contextual factors influence each group's fatality rates, and whether recurring patterns or notable divergences exist among the

investigated groups. Group selection is based on recentness and deadliness, ensuring contemporary relevance and rich data. Using RStudio and GTD data, the study employs descriptive analyses for death trends, multiple linear regressions

to identify activity factors influencing fatalities, and time series regression analyses to assess their impact over time. Contextual factors are examined through a literature-based approach and interrupted time series analyses. This research

will provide actionable recommendations for counterterrorism strategy, public safety, and government policies. The study promises valuable insights applicable to specific contexts, contributing to an evidence-based approach to countering terrorism and alleviating human suffering.