Development and evaluation of a prognostic prediction model for paediatric chronic post-surgical pain

Chronic pain after surgery (CPSP) affects around 20% of children who have had surgery in England and Wales.

This pain lowers the quality of life for patients and their parents, affecting their mental well-being and social connections. This study aims to create a model to predict the risk factors for CPSP. This way, we can help prevent it in patients who are at high risk. Scientists think that psychological, behavioural, and social factors contribute to CPSP.

Current research has pointed out risk factors from both patients and parents that might lead to CPSP.

However, the role of quantitative sensory testing (QST), conditioned pain modulation (CPM), and pain-related cognitive biases in children's CPSP haven't been investigated. Three studies will be done for the prediction model. Study 1 will review and analyse past research to identify known risk factors of CPSP.

Study 2 will develop and test a method for assessing QST and CPM in healthy people aged 5-24.

Study 3 will test the predictive value of the known risk factors, QST, CPM, and pain-related cognitive biases in children's CPSP. This will be done among typically developing 5-24-year-olds who are having common surgeries. Data will be collected before the surgery, on the day of the operation, and 3 months after the surgery.

If successful, a tool will be created for health professionals to share CPSP risk with patients.