Student to Degree Mismatch: The Role of Schools and the Impact Of Disruption From Covid-19

A level grades are crucial in determining how students match with university courses. Previous research by the team (Campbell et al, 2020) finds lower SES students are more likely to 'undermatch' - attending less selective courses than expected given their A level grades - and less

likely to overmatch (the reverse). This matters for social mobility since attending a higher-tariff course leads to higher future earnings (Belfield et al, 2018).

In 2020, A levels were cancelled due to COVID-19, and most students received Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs), predicted by teachers. Research (Murphy and Wyness, 2020; Anders et al., 2020), shows that high SES and private school students receive more generous predictions. They also have better information, advice and guidance, a key driver of attending higher-tariff courses.

Meanwhile, universities were expanding places over fears of fewer overseas students attending, numbers caps were abandoned, and they were legally obliged to accept students they made offers to. This perfect storm could advantage high SES students, impacting the extent of mismatch, and the SES gap.

In this project we will: 1) examine the impact of exam cancellations on student to course mismatch, 2) examine the characteristics of mismatched students (by school type and SES) in 2020 versus 2019, 3) provide new evidence on the consequences of mismatch for degree outcomes, describing the potential impact on equity and mobility.